ࡱ> rtqQ 92bjbj eiei'{VVVjjj8\tja(:rrrr '''''''$*Q-(V Vh | (r(T'T'T' ^r8r'T' 'T'T'h>T'rП=(B!vT''1(0a(T'-!-T'-VT'x T' (($ a( - X \: IPCC Regional Climate Predictions All land regions, information from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. It is very likely that all land regions will warm in the 21st century.                Africa Mean temperatures and hot extremes have emerged above natural variability, relative to 18501900, in all land regions in Africa (high confidence). The rate of surface temperature increase has generally been more rapid in Africa than the global average, with human-induced climate change being the dominant driver (high confidence). Observed increases in hot extremes (including heatwaves) and decreases in cold extremes (including cold waves) are projected to continue throughout the 21st century with additional global warming (high confidence). Marine heatwaves have become more frequent since the 20th century and are projected to increase around Africa (high confidence). Relative sea level has increased at a higher rate than global mean sea level around Africa over the last 3 decades. Relative sea level rise is likely to virtually certain to continue around Africa, contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and to coastal erosion and along most sandy coasts (high confidence). The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa with additional global warming (high confidence). Mediterranean and Europe Regardless of future levels of global warming, temperatures will rise in all European areas at a rate exceeding global mean temperature changes, similar to past observations (high confidence). The frequency and intensity of hot extremes, including marine heatwaves, have increased in recent decades and are projected to keep increasing regardless of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Critical thresholds relevant for ecosystems and humans are projected to be exceeded for global warming of 2C and higher (high confidence). The frequency of cold spells and frost days will decrease under all the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in this report and all time horizons, similar to past observations. (high confidence). Despite strong internal variability, observed trends in European mean and extreme temperatures cannot be explained without accounting for anthropogenic factors. Before the 1980s, warming by greenhouse gases was partly offset by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Reduced aerosol influence in the recent decades has led to an observable positive trend in shortwave radiation. (high confidence). Continued next page Observations have a seasonal and regional pattern consistent with projected increase of precipitation in winter in Northern Europe. A precipitation decrease is projected in summer in the Mediterranean extending to northward regions. Extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding are projected to increase at global warming levels exceeding 1.5C in all regions except the Mediterranean. (high confidence). Regardless of level of global warming, relative sea level will rise in all European areas except the Baltic Sea, at a rate close to or exceeding global mean sea level. Changes are projected to continue beyond 2100. Extreme sea level events will become more frequent and more intense, leading to more coastal flooding. Shorelines along sandy coasts will retreat throughout the 21st century (high confidence). Strong declines in glaciers, permafrost, snow cover extent, and snow seasonal duration at high latitudes/altitudes are observed and will continue in a warming world (high confidence). Multiple climatic impact-drivers have already changed concurrently over recent decades. The number of climatic impact-driver changes is expected to increase with increasing global warming (high confidence). Asia The observed mean surface temperature increase has clearly emerged out of the range of internal variability compared to 1850-1900. Heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased, and these trends will continue over the coming decades (high confidence). Marine heatwaves will continue to increase around Asia (high confidence). Fire weather seasons will lengthen and intensify, particularly in North Asia regions (medium confidence). Average and heavy precipitation will increase over much of Asia (high to medium confidence). Mean surface wind speeds have decreased in Asia (high confidence) and will continue to decrease in central and northern parts of Asia (medium confidence). Glaciers are declining and permafrost is thawing. Seasonal snow duration, glacial mass, and permafrost area will decline further by the mid-21st century (high confidence). Glacier runoff in the Asian high mountains will increase up to the mid-21st century (medium confidence), and subsequently runoff may decrease due to the loss of glacier storage. Relative sea level around Asia has increased faster than global average, with coastal area loss and shoreline retreat. Regional-mean sea level will continue to rise (high confidence). North and Central America North and Central America (and the Caribbean) are projected to experience climate changes across all regions, with some common changes and others showing distinctive regional patterns that lead to unique combinations of adaptation and risk-management challenges. These shifts in North and Central American climate become more prominent with increasing greenhouse gas emissions and higher global warming levels. Temperate change (mean and extremes) in observations in most regions is larger than the global mean and is attributed to human influence. Under all future scenarios and global warming levels, temperatures and extreme high temperatures are expected to continue to increase (virtually certain), with larger warming in northern subregions. Relative sea level rise is projected to increase along most coasts (high confidence) and are associated with increased coastal flooding and erosion (also in observations). Exceptions include regions with strong coastal land uplift along the south coast of Alaska and Hudson Bay. Ocean acidification (along coasts) and marine heatwaves (intensity and duration) are projected to increase (virtually certain and high confidence, respectively). Strong declines in glaciers, permafrost, and snow cover are observed and will continue in a warming world (high confidence), with the exception of snow in northern Arctic (see overleaf). Tropical cyclones (with higher precipitation), severe storms, and dust storms are expected to become more extreme (Caribbean, USA Gulf Coast, East Coast, Northern and Southern Central America) (medium confidence). Central and South America: Mean temperatures have very likely increased in all sub-regions and will continue to increase at rates greater than the global average (high confidence). Mean precipitation is projected to change, with increases in North-West South America (NWS) and South-East South America (SES) (high confidence) and decreases in North-East South America (NES) and South-West South America (SWS) (medium confidence). This is consistent among model projections by mid- and end of the 21st century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared to global mean sea level, over the last three decades, relative sea level has increased at a higher rate than global mean level in the South Atlantic and the subtropical North Atlantic, and at a lower rate in the East Pacific. Relative sea level rise is extremely likely to continue in the oceans around Central and South America, contributing to increased coastal flooding in low-lying areas (high confidence) and shoreline retreat along most sandy coasts (high confidence). Marine heatwaves are also projected to increase around the region over the 21st century (high confidence). Australia and New Zealand Australian land areas have warmed by around 1.4C and New Zealand land areas by around 1.1C between about 1910 and 2020 (very high confidence), and annual temperature changes have emerged above natural variability in all land regions (high confidence). Heat extremes have increased, cold extremes have decreased, and these trends are projected to continue (high confidence). Relative sea level rose at a rate higher than the global average in recent decades; sandy shorelines have retreated in many locations; relative sea level rise is projected to continue in the 21st century and beyond, contributing to increased coastal flooding and shoreline retreat along sandy coasts throughout Australasia (high confidence). Snow cover and depth have decreased and are projected to decrease further (high confidence). Frequency of extreme fire weather days has increased, and the fire season has become longer since 1950 at many locations (medium confidence). The intensity, frequency and duration of fire weather events are projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence) and New Zealand (medium confidence). Heavy rainfall and river floods are projected to increase (medium confidence). An increase in marine heatwaves and ocean acidity is observed and projected (high confidence). Enhanced warming in the East Australian Current region of the Tasman Sea is observed and projected (very high confidence). Sandstorms and dust storms are projected to increase throughout Australia (medium confidence). Changes in several climatic impact-drivers (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, floods; see Introduction fact sheet) would be more widespread at 2C compared to 1.5C global warming and even more widespread and/or pronounced for higher warming levels. Polar regions Annual mean surface air temperatures and precipitation will continue to increase during the 21st century under all assessed emissions scenarios in both Polar regions (high confidence). There is high confidence that mean precipitation and precipitation intensity will increase, the Arctic is projected to be dominated by rainfall, and in Antarctica rainfall will increase over the coastal regions. Continued next page Polar regions There is high confidence that glaciers have lost mass in all polar regions since 2000 and will continue to lose mass at least for several decades, even if global temperature is stabilized. Both major ice sheets Greenland and Antarctica have been losing mass since at least 1990, with the highest loss rate during 20102019 (high confidence), and they are projected to continue to lose mass. 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